Chiseling the debris: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (Working Group 1).

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports are standardized research papers produced by a panel of experts that show up-to-date and relevant information on climate change and the climate system. They are published to influence policymakers on what pathways/actions to take, policies to implement, and notify on the current state of the planet. The IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)   was formed in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and in 2007 was awarded the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize jointly with Albert. A. (Al) Gore Jnr. The First Assessment Report was published in 1990 and is produced once in six to seven years.   More than 14000 scientific research papers were utilized in the writing of the Sixth Assessment Report and over 200 specialists from the member countries were called to produce it.

Photo depicts a graphic world map showing transformation (2021) Graphic Photo/Alisa Singer /IPCC

 For the report to be published, all 195 member countries of the United Nations must agree with the information presented in the scientific literature and the information has to adhere to rules set in the principles guidelines book(the report should lack bias, be neutral, and scientific). Working Group 1 Assessment Report, which deals with Physical science, was published in August 2021, and it will be the talking point at COP26 (Glasgow, Scotland). The second Working Group 2 Assessment report, which deals with mitigation and adaptation, will be released in 2022. Alok Sharma MP (President of the COP26) mentions that, the report is a wake-up call and that the 1.5 degrees Celsius is still achievable but retreating fast. The above sentiments are not different from those expressed in the sixth IPCC report, which contains troubling data about our planet's current situation and highlights clearly that the climate crisis requires more attention now than ever. Furthermore, the report acknowledges all previous data from Assessment Report: 1 (1990) to Assessment Report: 5(2014), still stands with the view that human activities are the major cause of the crisis and that countries need to manage their  Green House Gases net emissions(GHG).

The report’s summary for Policymakers has a unique language from earlier reports, which were cautious, illustrating vulnerability to the disasters anticipated and stating clearly what is causing the crisis. This is shown by the use of the “unequivocal” term to show that unmistakably human impacts have warmed the climate system(Atmosphere, land, and oceans). Furthermore, the report shifts from traditional uncertainty to a high level of certainty that climate change is the biggest crisis of this century. It also notes that every decade since the 1980s has been hotter than the previous one,  affecting water cycles, precipitation patterns, sea-level rise, saltiness in seas, to name a few.   Antonio Guterres (Secretary-General of the United Nations), identifies the report as a “code red” for humanity, many many changes to the climate are now irreversible and countries must decarbonize; the IPCC reports that the current rate of Carbon emissions will surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius global average temperature limits set at the Paris Agreement(2015). This exceeding coming in twenty years earlier than the previously projected thirty years (2050).

More so, the sixth evaluation presents troubling situations, stating that...

•  a degree increase from the pre-industrial time global average temperature can cause a heatwave that typically occurs once every ten years to occur three to four times more.
•   A   four-degree Celsius increase can cause a heat wave that used to occur once in 10 years to occur nine times in a decade,
•       and once every 50 years would translate to  39.2 times occurrences in ten years.

Photo depicts air pollution at fourth bus terminus Harare Zimbabwe(2021)

The report identifies changes expected and noticeable according to regions; Southern Africa and Madagascar are expected to face increased aridity and fire climate conditions and from 2015 to the current date temperatures have been high than ever recorded. This is noticeable in places such as Madagascar turning into deserts slowly,  and  Zimbabwe (Masvingo area facing expanded dry conditions). Africa is to face severe consequences of climate change because there is reliance on agriculture, a climate-sensitive livelihood, and the economies cannot absorb impacts and fund adaptive means. Furthermore, Africa is still in transition to development hence it is still facing extreme poverty as mentioned by Montes, Silway, Newhouse, Chen, and Tian (2020). The rate of surface temperature increase in Africa has consistently been faster and heatwaves have hit the entire SADC region in 2017, 2019, and 2020, with temperatures ranging from 30-35 degrees Celsius. Cold waves have also been reported in Southern Africa, notably in 2015, when they passed through Zambia, Botswana, and Namibia.

Changes have also been seen in other regions Europe, Asia, Antarctica, America, and Australia. Ice melting has led to sea-level rise and the sixth assessment notes that sea-level rise has tripled compared to the 1901-1970 timeline . This leading to coastal areas being submerged and island states such as Kiribati, Tuvalu, Fiji, and the Maldives are in grave danger. Cyclones have also been experienced in Africa(cyclone Idai: Southern Africa), America( USA: hurricane Henri, Florence, Dorian), and Asia, and these have destroyed infrastructure, disrupted the economy, and lives have been lost. The report also notes that global surface temperature has been higher by 1.09 degrees Celsius from 2011 to 2020 as compared to 1850 to 1900.  This  affects the agriculture industry heavily hence the climate system has to be continuously monitored and taken care of.

The report needs to be taken seriously and I hope that it will guide the COP26 resolutions.

 

 

Reference list

Montes. J, Silwal. A Newhouse. D, Chen. F, Swindle. R, and Tian. S, (2020)How much will poverty rise in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020, accessed from  How Much Will Poverty Rise in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2020? | Other Poverty Study (worldbank.org) on 7^th of September 2020.

Mcgrath. M,(2021)Climate Change: IPCC report ‘code red for humanity’, accessed from Climate change: IPCC report is 'code red for humanity' - BBC News on the 5^th of September 2021.

IPCC(2021) AR6 Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis, accessed from Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch) on the 5^th of September 2021.

IPCC(2021)Summary for policymakers, accessed from Sixth Assessment Report (ipcc.ch) on the 6^th of September 2021